NFL 2005 Week 4 Predictions

OK, I finally got in the black last week, with an 8-6 week. Still some surprises. Figures the Vikings would get their act together the one week I pick against them. See, they can’t do anything right.

At this point, let me officially jump off the Cardinal bandwagon. In my preseason predictions, I said you could “either laugh at my stupidity or marvel at my sagacity.” Let the laughter begin. Without a running game, the Cardinals are going nowhere. With Josh McCown starting at QB while Warner’s on the mend, the passing game will be as bad as the running game. Ugh.

Onto this week.

Bills “@” Saints
Ah, the Saints finally get a home game, or at least as much “home” as can be expected. The Saints have disappointed the last two weeks, after a gutsy win over the Panthers. The Bills have disappointed all season. They have a good defense, but they have lost their leader Takeo Spikes. The Saints don’t have much of a defense, so Willis McGahee should put up some good numbers. But against a weakened Bill defense, the more diverse Saint offense should as well. Until Losman matures, the Bills just aren’t going to get it done. Having a good running game is great, but you still have to be able to throw it, and Buffalo cannot. Prediction: Saints.

Lions @ Bucs
Tampa is one of the great surprises of the season. The defense is playing a bit like the glory days defense, the running game is kicking butt, and Griese is having a career renaissance. I don’t think they can ride this wave all the way. They are pushing their young Cadillac too hard; he can’t keep up this pace for 16 games. But right now they are a pretty good team. The Lions, well, what can one say. They stay with Harrington at QB, so what do you expect? Prediction: Bucs.

Colts @ Titans
Another great surprise this season has been the Colts. Make that two surprises. First, the defense is playing well. Second, the passing game is pretty tame. A Colt offense ranked 21st in the league? Unbelievable! Manning has a grand total of 2 TD passes in three games (and both came in the opening weekend), coming off a season in which he averaged 3 TDs per game. Completion percentage is down, rating is down, yards per game is down. As Daunte Culpepper showed last week, a disappointing season can turn around very quickly. But the Colts won’t need an MVP performance from Manning to beat the rebuilding Titans. Prediction: Colts.

Chargers @ Patriots
New England got hit with a double whammy last week, losing both Harrison and Matt Light. Both are serious losses. Everyone focuses on Harrison, of course, since he is the lone star in the secondary. But Light’s loss is just as important because it leaves the left side of the offensive line, Brady’s blind side, in inexperienced hands which then presents problems for both the passing and running games. The Patriots have evolved over the years into very much an offense-oriented team, and with a struggling running game, the offensive line even more needs to keep Brady on his feet. At least Light will come back this season. And if those losses aren’t enough, backup running back Kevin Faulk is also out this week. The Patriots have played sloppy football this year, with far too many penalties and turnovers. The Chargers are off to a 1-2 start, but both losses were eminently winnable. Like New England, they could easily be 3-0. Drew Brees, coming off a career-saving season last year, is again off to a tough start, averaging less than 200 yards passing per game. But they got off slowly last year too, and are only a game out of first place in the division. In the end, New England is familiar with injuries and the Charger secondary is not up to the challenge of stopping Brady. Prediction: Patriots.

Broncos @ Jaguars
I must say how impressed I am with the Jaguar offense, particularly passing the ball. Having some decent targets has really improved Leftwich’s standing. Denver had a good game Monday night, but they are inconsistent and will follow up the big game with a flop, especially against a very good and balanced Jaguar team. Prediction: Jaguars.

Texans @ Bengals
The Bengals find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being one of the top teams in the AFC, undefeated with one of the best offenses around and a respectable defense to go with it. The Texans are in the familiar position of losing and seeing their QB sacked on a regular basis. The tigers will roar again. Prediction: Bengals.

Seahawks @ Redskins
Now that I’ve jumped off the Cardinal bandwagon, the NFC West must fall to Seattle. I jumped off the Redskin bandwagon last week, and will stay off as long as Brunell is the QB. The ‘Skins have a fantastic defense, but nothing on offense. Take away the last few minutes of the Cowboy game and all they’ve scored are field goals. Seattle looks pretty good right now, particularly on offense. My long standing theory is that when a good offense goes up against a good defense, look at the opposite matchup, which in this case is the Washington offense against the Seahawk defense. Whoever wins that battle wins the game, and Seahawks take it easily. Prediction: Seahawks.

Rams @ Giants
The explosive Giant offense will go up against the dismal Ram defense. Oh my. Eli Manning will defend the honor of the Manning family name by putting up big numbers worthy of his brother. Prediction: Giants.

Jets @ Ravens
What a devastating week the Jets have had. They lose both their starting and backup quarterbacks for the season and are forced to go with young Brooks Bollinger while geezer Testaverde gets back into football shape. The Raven offense just looks like they lost their top two quarterbacks. This will be a very boring, low scoring affair. Will there even be a touchdown? Baltimore has the better defense, so go with them. Prediction: Ravens.

Eagles @ Chiefs
This should be quite a game. Chief’s coach Vermeil took the Eagles to their first Super Bowl way back when, and current coach Reid took them to their second just last year. Both teams field very good offenses. The still-forming reputation of the Chief defense took a nose dive last week in getting blown out by the Broncos. The Eagles will be shorthanded with place kicker Akers out with a leg injury. That will give the edge to the Chiefs, who will be able to count on some field goals to go with their touchdowns, while the Eagles will not. Prediction: Chiefs.

Cowboys @ Raiders
The Raiders sit at 0-3, but are much better than that would indicate. They have played tough in all three games, two of which were against the two defending conference winners. The lone non-Super Bowl team they played was Kansas City, a Super Bowl contender this year. They took the Eagles to the wire. The defense still isn’t very good, but the offense certainly is. The Cowboys sit at 2-1, having squeaked out wins against the Chargers and lowly 49ers and barely losing to the Redskins. This should be a good offensive game since both teams are good. But the Raiders are better. Prediction: Raiders.

Vikings @ Falcons
Minnesota remembered that they are allowed to run the ball too, last week. A productive running game opened up the passing game, and Culpepper had a field day. Unfortunately, the Vikings still have one of the worst run defenses around (not that their pass defense is much better, but passing isn’t something the Falcons do too much), and the Falcons will ram the ball down their throats, keeping the Viking offense on the sidelines and therefore off the scoreboard. When Culpepper and company are on the field, their questionable line will have to face down a strong pass rush from the Falcon defensive ends. Prediction: Falcons.

49ers “@” Cardinals
I guess someone forgot to tell the 49ers just how bad they are. They don’t have a great record but they have played every game tough. Last year, San Fran was able to only defeat one team in the league—the Cardinals—and they did it twice to account for their two wins. The Cardinal fan base is so bad that this home game, played in a foreign country, will probably find them more support than a true home game. With a non-existent running game and a passing game without Warner, the Cardinals will struggle just to make first downs. Prediction: 49ers.

Packers @ Panthers
I don’t get the Panthers. They play tough against the Patriots and come away with the win, but then drop games to the Saints and the Dolphins. Granted, Miami is better than expected, and could actually be the second best team in the AFC East, but the Panthers are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders. I’m not ready to drop them, but they have to step up their game a bit. Luckily, the hapless Packers are coming to town. Their saving grace the last few years has been a good offense, which is going nowhere this year. Prediction: Panthers.

Last Week: 8-6
Season: 21-25